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(AP)Cornerback Prince Amukamara appreciated the give and take with new Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy at Tuesday’s practice.For the defense, as non-contact organized team activities began there was a lot of taking – and then they really gave it to Nagy and his fledgling offense.”He’s an offensive coach and last year coach (John) Fox, I couldn’t really talk stuff to because he’s a defensive coach,” Amukamara said. ”And it’s like Nagy’s offense, so if I get a pick or something … I like to talk stuff to him.”The idea for the defense since offseason started was maintaining continuity with players and with coaches, even while the head coach had changed.The addition of a few new pieces hasn’t hurt, and now defensive players believe they have what’s needed to improve on last year when they ranked 10th overall.And Nagy is also a believer, even if he and offensive players are getting kidded at practice from Amukamara or defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.”Right now there’s a trust from one another because they’ve been together,” Nagy said. ”There’s that experience factor, which is good. And they believe what they’ve got going on with Vic’s system.”When you have that, that’s always good. So they just kind of want to grow from any mistakes they made last year, different areas of the game they can improve on, and that’s what they’re doing right now.”Linebacker Danny Trevathan pointed to the retention of Fangio as a key. Fangio re-signed after his bid to become head coach was denied following Fox’s firing.”I was excited to have Vic back,” Trevathan said. ”I was kind of nervous about him leaving. I feel like I really wanted him back.”He’s one of our leaders and he’s one of the guys we can go to for calls and advice on things.”Keeping the entire starting secondary together was also important. The Bears could have lost starting cornerback Kyle Fuller or his good friend Amukamara as free agents, but retained both.Amukamara pointed to Seattle’s ability to keep Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor together as an example of what familiarity can do for a secondary.”So when you have that continuity and the language stays the same, meaning the plays, it just becomes second nature,” Amukamara said. ”Guys play faster. Guys know what to expect.”They know how teams are going to attack them and all that is a recipe for success.”Although intact, the Bears secondary has problems to correct. They’ve made a franchise record low of eight interceptions each of the last three seasons.”I think personally on the back end it’s our job to take the ball away https://www.thebearsfanshop.com/Taylor-Gabriel-Jersey ,” Amukamara said.”I think we had our opportunities last year and just needed to capitalize on them.”And I would say that for the most part, just taking the ball away, I think we did a great job last year. I think we were (third) at forcing fumbles and recovering them. So I think this year, just catching them, intercepting it.”One change the defense did make is drafting inside linebacker Roquan Smith in the first round to challenge Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski for playing time.Trevathan realizes Smith threatens his job security, but also thinks the extra speed and depth is something the defense lacked..”We got the right guy to fit our defense,” Trevathan said. ”He’s working his tail off and he fits in with our linebacker group.”Nagy appreciated Smith’s quickness defending one pass play on the outside.A forced turnover a few minutes later had the defense chortling, while Nagy had to address his offense.”We like that because that’s the kind of defense we are,” Trevathan said. ”We’re going to be in your face making plays, but at the same time we’re having fun and we’re all getting better at the same time.”NOTES: Outside linebacker Aaron Lynch returned to practice after suffering an ankle injury at the April 17-19 minicamp. . After offseason surgery, right guard Kyle Long was able to participate in the offense’s installation, but did not take part in scrimmage. Nagy said it’s likely Long will stay at right guard. Last year some thought had been given to playing Long at left guard. … Wide receiver Allen Robinson is still sidelined while rehabbing a torn ACL. Nagy called Robinson ”ahead of the game” with his recovery.— It won’t necessarily be Chuck Pagano’s fault."Being who you thought we were since 2005!Log In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBearsOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Latest NewsThe Bears DenNotesXs and OsSuperfansFrom The Desk Of...The Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019New,52commentsIt won’t necessarily be Chuck Pagano’s fault.CSTShareTweetShareShareThe Bears Defense Will Probably Regress in 2019Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY SportsThe success of the 2018 Chicago Bears was driven by a defense that was at the top of the NFL. Exactly where they ranked depends on which metric you prefer, but Football Outsiders ranked them first overall, first against the pass, and second against the rush. That seems about right. In a perfect world, the Bears would ride the best defense in the NFL into the history books, remaining at the top of the NFC North for years. This would allow Matt Nagy the chance to develop Mitchell Trubisky and the offense, and all would be well.It’s probably not going to happen. The defense is likely to see a dip in performance, and that’s even assuming that they don’t lose any important players like Adrian Amos or Bryce Callahan. When that happens Trey Burton Color Rush Jersey , some fans are likely to blame the loss of Vic Fangio and the introduction of Chuck Pagano. The thing is, it won’t be Pagano’s fault, necessarily, either.Defenses are really inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. This is a major reason it makes more sense for a team to invest in offense, and it’s also one of the reasons why the Bears are fortunate in having an offensive coach at the center of their organization.Turnovers Aren’t SustainableFootball Outsiders tells us that predicting turnovers is a difficult thing. In fact, it’s really unlikely for a team to sustain turnovers on a year-to-year basis. In 2004,it was noted that teams rarely sustain a presence at the top of the turnover board from one season to the next, and that exact same trend was found to be true again in 2014. For 2018, Chicago led the league with 36 takeaways. That is really, really good. It also does very little to suggest how the next season is going to go.To pick one finding out of many, 538 reports that from 2009-2018, a team’s interception rate in the prior season had only a 2.4% share of predicting the next season’s success. What Kyle Fuller did in 2018 was great, but there is little reason to think the Bears are going to stay at the top of the leaderboard in this regard.What this means is that Chicago’s defense--which had five more takeaways than the next-closest competitor in 2018--is unlikely to stay that dominant. This won’t be Pagano’s fault, even if fans look to find a way to blame him.Chicago Over-performed in SacksUnlike interceptions, quarterback hits do tend to be consistent on a year-to-year basis. Sacks, however, do not (and sacks only own a 3.6% share of predicting the next season’s success rate). Chicago was 8th in quarterback hits last season, with 95; that should have resulted in an expected sack rate of around 41 or 42 sacks. Instead, the Bears enjoyed 49 sacks. In other words, while quarterback hits are consistent Cody Parkey Jersey , sacks are not. We should expect to see the same defense get slightly fewer sacks next season even if they do maintain the same rate of hitting the quarterback. That means that Chicago will likely field a top-half or even top-third defense. It does not suggest that they will be one of the very top teams in sacks, like they were in 2018.Defense as a Whole is VolatileIn general, defense is less reliable than offense. That’s one reason why offensive DVOA does roughly twice as good of a job of predicting the next season’s success as defensive DVOA. The top three defenses in 2016 were Denver, New York (Giants), and Arizona. In 2017, those same units ranked 10th, 18th, and 4th. In 2018, there were--in the same order--5th, 24th, and 17th. A number of factors impact defense, including rules that are slanted to favor offenses and the ability of offenses to isolate aspects of a defense that they choose to focus on. In simple terms, an offense can almost always choose who gets to be in on a play, even if that choice is filtered through the opportunities provided by a defense. On the other hand, a defense cannot be guaranteed that its best players will even have a chance to make a play on the ball. Ultimately, what this means is that when the defense of the 2019 Chicago Bears take the field, they will likely be a capable unit. They will probably be able to take over games and win a few contests almost on their own. However, it is really unlikely they will dominate games as they did in 2018, and their struggles will have a number of explanations unconnected to either Vic Fangio’s departure or Chuck Pagano’s arrival as his replacement.
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