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Cowboys Playoff Tracker: Winter is Leighton Vander Esch Jersey coming for the 1-2 Cowboys Week 3 in the NFL is an interesting week Womens Ezekiel Elliott Jersey , because it is the first week after which the first teams are basically eliminated from playoff contention. Only three times since 1990 (‘92 Chargers, ‘95 Lions, ‘98 Bills) has a team made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Since realignment in 2002, not one of the 78 teams that started the season 0-3 made the playoffs, which means the 0-3 teams (Raiders, Texans, Cardinals) can start doing mock drafts.Week 3 is also interesting for teams like the Cowboys that started the season 1-1, because the third game often points such teams in one or the other direction. Had the Cowboys won against the Seahawks and improved to 2-1, their historic playoff odds would have jumped to 53%. Instead, they dropped to 24%. That difference of 29% is the biggest possible swing of playoff odds anywhere in the 16-game regular season, and the Cowboys’ inability to capitalize on that will likely set the tone for the rest of the season.The table below shows what the playoff odds have looked like over the last 16 seasons by W/L after the third game of the season. So the Cowboys have about a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs after three weeks. That still sounds like they have a fighting chance, and maybe they do Womens Travis Frederick Jersey , but the more important question is this: Are the 1-2 Cowboys good enough to overcome those odds?To understand where the Cowboys currently stand and what their chances look like going forward, we turn once more to the trusted Pythagorean Formula. We’ve used the formula often before to measure overall team strength, on the hypothesis that a team’s true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses. This is the NFL version of the formula:The 1-2 Cowboys have scored 41 points and allowed 53. Plugging that into the formula results in a 5.6-win projection for the Cowboys, which should good for a Top 6 pick in the 2018 NFL draft.And in case you were harboring any hopes of a quick turnaround, know that the 41 points scored over three games makes the Cowboys offense the second-worst unit in the NFL. They are not going to be able to simply flip a switch and start scoring 30 points a game from Week 4 on.There is of course some hope that the Cowboys might be able to beat the 1-2 Lions next week, but unless they beat Detroit by two or more TDs, the Cowboys win projection won’t rise much beyond eight wins, and that’s factoring in a Cowboys win. And after four weeks of play, there is quite a strong correlation between the early win projection and the subsequent regular season win totals. Of course, with every additional week of data, the formula gets better http://www.thecowboysfootballauthentic.com/geoff-swaim-jersey-authentic , but after about Week 4 the improvements are gradual, and not as steep as in the first few weeks. For the Cowboys, outside of 2015 when Romo’s injury sunk the season, the projection has been fairly accurate during Garrett’s tenure as a head coach, averaging a mean average error of just 1.2 games versus the actual regular season win totals. What the data here tells us is the Cowboys are basically an 8-8 team with the occasional swing in either direction.Under Garrett’s tenure, the team has been oscillating around eight wins for the last eight years, and barring a huge showing against the Lions next week, the data here is robust enough to suggest that the ceiling for the 2018 team is yet another 8-8 season.To borrow from Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are. And that record says the the 2018 Cowboys are an average to below average team. Sure, they have a 24% chance of making the playoffs. But look at the 10 other teams with a 1-2 record; the historic playoff odds suggest up to three of them could make it to the playoffs - and do you really think these 2018 Cowboys will beat out the likes of the Patriots, Seahawks, Chargers http://www.thecowboysfootballauthentic.com/tyrone-crawford-jersey-authentic , or Falcons for a playoff spot?Winter is coming.If we use the Pythagorean formula for the remaining 31 teams, we get a good idea of the emerging 2018 playoff picture. With that in mind, here’s how the projected wins stack up after Week 3 for all 32 NFL teams:Pythagorean Projected Wins by NFL team, Week 3, 2018 If all teams continue playing the way they did over the first three weeks of the season, the Cowboys would end up with the sixth-worst record in the league. Of course, a lot of things can change between now and then, but for now, the Cowboys are on a trajectory for one of the top picks in the draft. The Cowboys are out on the East Coast for a critical divisional matchup with the Washington Redskins — a game that has the potential to get the Cowboys in the playoff hunt, or derail all of the momentum that was built following the 40-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago.Let’s check in on who will not be suiting up for the silver and blue as they look to knock off Washington this afternoon.Cowboys inactivesDallas will not dress quarterback Mike White, Tavon Austin — who left last week with an injury, linebacker Joe Thomas Womens Joe Looney Jersey , defensive tackle Caraun Reid, linebacker Chris Covington, guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, and defensive lineman Daniel Ross for today’s NFC East battle.Sean Lee will be making his return to the football field for the first time since aggravating his hamstring against the Seahawks in Seattle back in week three. Also of note: rookie tight end Dalton Schultz is active today, meaning Dallas will go with four tight ends in D.C.Redskins inactives:Meanwhile, on Washington’s side of things, some key players will not be on the field this afternoon: including change-of-pace running back and pass-catching threat Chris Thompson, as well as wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson.Those are certainly big losses for Alex Smith and the Washington offense, as Helman points out:Will Kris Richard and the defense continue their impressive play — and will the offense be able to take advantage on the road? We will soon find out.Let’s get a win today!
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